If you go by the headlines, the iPhone 5S and Google Glass were the big technology stories of 2013, and Twitter’s IPO was the event of the year. The coverage of Glass focused mostly on its privacy implications — not its ability to change the world. And iPhone and Twitter were just more of the same. So we could end the year really disappointed because nothing dramatic seems to have happened on the technology front.
But look again, at the stories we missed. So much happened, in fact, that I believe we have set the stage for the transformation of entire industries.
Smaller has become cooler in computers.
This will spell disaster for old-line computer companies such as Dell, Acer and Microsoft.
Electric cars proved their mettle.
Technology is improving health care.
Quantified Self devices such as Fitbit and Nike Fuelband are becoming widely available. You even see these on the shelves of Apple Stores. Companies are running contests using these devices to encourage employees to get more exercise. Smartphone add-ons such as theAlivecor heart monitor are being prescribed by doctors. Interestingly, Apple recently patented a heart monitor sensor for the iPhone. Our smartphones are destined to become our prime medical advisers. I expect they will one day chide us to get more exercise, drink less alcohol and watch our calorie intake. They will tell us when we are about to get sick and which medicines to take. We will only turn to our doctors for refuge.
Rosie the Robot came one step closer to reality.
Whether we realize it or not, the robotic revolution is underway. Robots have advanced to the point that for some types of goods, it is cheaper to manufacture in the United States than China. I expect that what is a trickle of manufacturing returning to the United States from China will later in this decade become a flood.
I also expect to place my order for Rosie sometime in 2020 and have it delivered by an Amazon drone.
The space race is on again.
NASA once again has competition from governments abroad so there will be a new sense of urgency. Now it has the advantage of being able to collaborate with entrepreneurs and take advantage of the technology advances that they have created.
I am eagerly waiting for reservations to open up for the Starship Enterprise.
Now let me give you the bad news: we still have a few more years of disappointment before we marvel at all these advances. The base of an exponential curve is flat. When it turns upwards, dramatic developments happen, but for the longest time nothing seems to change. This is where we are with robotics, sensors, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, 3D printing and medicine — all of which are exponential technologies.
In 1977, the president of Digital Equipment Corp., Ken Olsen, famously said “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” The first personal computers were just for geeks and nerds. Then they were for the rich. About two decades ago, we began to question their usefulness and productivity. Now they are transforming industries, and increasingly cost less.
More recently, we became disappointed with solar energy and electric cars. The good news is that this disappointment will soon turn into amazement as well. I know because I live in a solar home and drive a Tesla electric car that I say is a spaceship that travels on land.
Follow Me On Twitter: https://twitter.com/arjunsantosh
Follow Me On Twitter: https://twitter.com/arjunsantosh
No comments:
Post a Comment